Victoria’s Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio’s office is considering “every possible” option to expand the supply of gas.
As the climate crisis intensifies, with 2024 marking the hottest year on record, polar ice sheets melting at alarming rates (Danish scientists now anticipate a three metre sea level rise within our kids’ lifetime), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation approaching collapse (affecting the livelihood of billions of people in Africa, Asia, and South America), and Australians, as we have seen on the news over the last months, battling with cyclones, bushfires and floods… what is Victoria’s Labor Government doing?
Pushing for more gas.
Unbelievably, that’s what’s happening: Rather than accelerating the transition to renewables, Victoria’s Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio’s office is considering “every possible” option to expand the supply of gas.
At least that is what her adviser, Matthew Butera, told the Geelong Manufacturing Council last week.
A crisis of conscience, not supply
But who is actually facing an “energy crisis” here? The so-called energy crisis discussed at this meeting wasn’t about the devastation caused by climate change − the unprecedented heatwaves, bushfires, floods, and cyclones like Alfred ravaging communities. No, it was about these manufacturers worrying that, in the near future, they might not be able to burn as much gas as they please.
This reflects a dangerous level of detachment from climate reality within the Geelong business community.
Instead of acknowledging that the gas industry is a major driver of planetary collapse, these manufacturers are lobbying the government to abandon its gas phase-out plan in the name of “protecting jobs and supporting Victorian businesses.”
Outdated economics, political cowardice
Their argument? Companies overseas burn cheap fossil fuels, so Victoria must do the same to stay competitive. Never mind that renewables are already cheaper than fossil fuels, and that the cost of gas will continue to rise, while wind and solar keep getting more affordable.
Gas has repeatedly been identified as the main driver of price hikes during recent times. Most recently, just one week after millions of Australians had been warned to expect energy bill rises of up to nine per cent later this year, a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis documented the truth: the real reason behind this unwelcome price hike:
“Our analysis of historical trends shows that continued dependence on expensive gas power stations and ageing coal-fired power stations for electricity generation has been driving up wholesale prices, while more renewable energy has been bringing them down,” lead analyst Johanna Bowyer told 9News.
The economic case for renewables is undeniable. Countries that commit to clean energy are reaping the benefits of lower energy prices and greater energy security. Germany and England have phased out coal faster than expected, and even fossil-fuel-rich nations like the United Arab Emirates are accelerating solar investments.
In a tweet on Blue Sky, The Australia Institute put it this way: “Australians are waking up to the giant scam the gas industry has been operating: Draining Australia of gas − exporting over 80% of Australia’s gas − getting over half the gas they export royalty free, never paying PRRT on the gas they export, and price gouging us for our own gas.”
Meanwhile, Victorian manufacturers are begging to be shackled to this sinking fossil-fuel economy − while the Labor government enables their denialism.
A reckless betrayal of concern for our safety and health
The Victorian Government’s flirtation with gas expansion is short-sighted and dangerous. Every tonne of carbon we burn pushes us closer to irreversible tipping points. Every tonne of carbon we burn kills people. Every delay in the transition to renewables locks in more devastation for future generations.
Last year, we published an article about the shocking research that highlights the lethal cost of fossil fuels: a human life lost for every thousand tonnes burned. Let’s repeat that line slowly, one more time, and take it in: A human life is lost for every thousand tonnes of fossil fuels burned.
Fossil fuels, including methane gas, are the root cause of the climate crisis, and their harm extends to human health at every stage of their life cycle, from extraction and refining to transportation and disposal. The impact is severe and cumulative.
Geelong’s north battle higher rates of lung conditions, asthma and other health issues. A refinery run by Viva Energy, located in Geelong’s north, supplies about a quarter of Australia’s fuel requirements and is the only domestic manufacturer of aviation gasoline. Any connection there?
Well, recently, a man living in the shadow of the Viva refinery made the call for more comprehensive air quality testing to find out whether Viva Energy’s increasing emissions are contributing to these health woes.
Additionally, according to the annual State of the Climate report from the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization, the last decade was the planet’s hottest ever − with planet-wrecking carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere reaching an 800,000-year high.
The last time CO₂ was this high, sea levels were more than 20 metres higher, and global temperatures were significantly warmer − conditions in which modern civilisation would struggle to survive.
This data should worry anyone, including all members of the Geelong Manufacturing Council, because − as scientists have warned us since the 1970s, and as we are now seeing unfolding on our tv news screens − these record-high CO₂ levels are driving more extreme weather events, including deadlier heatwaves, stronger cyclones, rising sea levels, crop failures, and eventually: mass displacement. Climate refugees in the millions. It represents a direct threat to their manufacturing business.
However the attitude among Geelong’s gas-craving manufacturers appears to be that disaster is good for business.
Stop bowing to fossil fuel interests
What are these Geelong manufacturers and Victorian government officials thinking? Are they thinking at all? Or are they simply acting on orders or financial incentives from vested interests?
Either way, their thinking belongs in the past. The green transition is a reality, and the world is moving forward − so why isn’t Geelong’s manufacturing and business community? And why isn’t the Victorian Labor Government?
How many more record-breaking heat waves and cyclones will it take? How many more billion-dollar disasters? How much more scientific consensus before our leaders in business and governments wake up to their responsibility as leaders?
If Minister D’Ambrosio and her colleagues were serious about climate action, they would stop bowing to fossil fuel interests and start doing their jobs, which is to protect Victorians from the real energy crisis: the much more urgent one which is causing an escalating collapse of a livable planet.
As an individual, you don’t have to wait for them. You can take action right now. You can demand real leadership on climate.
Tell the Victorian Government to scrap its gas expansion plans and commit to a rapid, just transition to 100 per cent renewables. There are a range of petitions you can sign, and you can write to Minister Lily D’Ambrosio directly. This continuing fossil-burning insanity has got to stop, even when it means standing up against powerful vested interests. This requires leadership.
You can also send the Minister and her Labor Government a powerful signal by voting specifically for a climate-friendly candidate or party at the federal election in May 2025. Once candidates are announced, we will publish a voter guide outlining where they stand on climate action.
→ Geelong Manufacturing Council – 18 March 2025:
$30 million in local Geelong investment on hold due to energy crisis
→ World Meteorological Organization – 19 March 2025:
WMO report documents spiralling weather and climate impacts
→ The Guardian – 20 March 2025:
Mild winters and trend towards electrification will push back gas shortage until 2028, Aemo says
“Increased cost of the fossil fuel has also cut forecasts of how much gas will be needed in Australia’s southern states.”
→ 9News – 21 March 2025:
The real reasons why your energy bills are getting more expensive
→ Centre for Climate Safety – 28 September 2024:
The lethal cost of fossil fuels: A human life for every thousand tonnes burned
The Australia Institute wrote:
Mythical gas shortages and a manufactured crisis
How the gas industry uses AEMO data to trick Australians
Cue the scary headlines, warnings of catastrophic shortages and blackouts, and fearmongering by vested interests.
The way the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)’s data is interpreted misses one crucial fact: Australia has an abundance of gas, more than almost any other country on Earth.
In fact, we produce enough gas to supply Australian households and businesses many times over each year, with plenty left to export.
But the largely foreign-owned gas industry is allowed to sell 80 percent of Australia’s gas overseas, at a massive profit, then claim we don’t have enough here. The industry does this knowing that it can rely on certain supporters in the media to help sell its story.
Australia doesn’t have a gas crisis. It has an integrity crisis.
Setting aside manufactured shortages, if you dig deeper into the AEMO statement, the warnings of “gas deficits” are for a worst-case scenario, like a string of freezing days during peak demand for gas-fired power generation. Even when something like that has happened in recent years, supply was not interrupted.
The statement uses questionable assumptions about gas consumption and demand, supported by unnecessarily dramatic quotes by AEMO’s CEO.
The Victorian government’s gas policy
Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action wrote on Linkedin:
With more than 2 million gas customers, Victoria has historically used more gas than other States. About 60% of our gas is used for heating, cooking and hot water in our homes and commercial buildings. Our gas use triples in winter, with many homes still using legacy (and expensive to run) gas heating. Our State’s industrial sector also relies heavily on gas – particularly where gas is used as a feedstock or for high-heat industries – representing about 30% of our gas use.
Gas is also needed to help support the energy transition to renewables. Until technologies such as long-duration storage come online, gas-powered-generation of electricity will be needed for periods where the sun is not shining, the wind is not blowing or where ageing and increasingly unreliable coal plants are not available. Victoria’s renewable energy target of 95% by 2035 recognises that there will be a need for gas-fired generation to play the small but important role it does today in firming renewables during the energy transition. This reflects a Victorian Government approach to the energy transition that is explicit and pragmatic to ensure reliability during and orderly transition.
One of the most powerful measures to address potential gas shortfalls while saving consumers money is electrification of heating, hot water and other significant gas loads where that makes sense. Electrification really matters in a State where residential is 50% (105 PJ) of our gas consumption, and commercial gas use is a further 10%.
Through the Victorian Energy Upgrades and Solar Homes programs the Victorian Government is helping people switch to efficient electric appliances in their homes. A new All Electric home can save around $1000 per year or $2,200 with solar. Existing all-electric homes can save around $1700 per year or $2,700 with solar.
It not only saves on their energy bills, but also to frees up gas for customers who need it, such as high-heat and hard-to-abate industries.
Electrification and energy efficiency increase gas reliability and put downward pressure on wholesale gas prices. It’s not a small impact – AEMO’s 2024 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) identifies the potential for electrification to reduce gas demand by around 35 PJ by 2030.
What does the future look like?
With the release of the Gas Substitution Roadmap in 2022, Victoria became the first state in Australia to clearly articulate the journey needed to progressively move away from fossil gas.
In just a few short years, many commitments have been delivered, such as the requirements for all-electric new homes and strengthened energy efficiency standards, and through the Victorian Energy Upgrades, Solar Homes and other programs, we continue to support Victorian homes and businesses to move toward energy-efficient electric alternatives when they are able to.
Our Roadmap is designed to not only lower bills for Victorians by reducing our household dependence on gas, but to ensure there is sufficient ongoing gas supply for the businesses and industry that need it.
To support this vision, we have developed a Renewable Gas Directions Paper that outlines our roadmap to fostering a thriving renewable gas industry, scaling up biomethane and renewable hydrogen production, and establishing the Industrial Renewable Gas Guarantee – a renewable gas target and mechanism.
In its communique, today’s ECMC meeting underlined that renewable gases are “one of the most viable pathways to decarbonise parts of industry where electrification is not a viable option” and tasked officials to work jointly on potential national policy approaches to be presented at a future meeting.
Victoria has been working to deliver south-eastern Australia’s gas supply security for decades – and recent policy and regulatory reforms are focused on practical affordable solutions for Victorian customers.
Excerpt from:
Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action – 14 March 2025:
Meeting Eastern Australia’s Gas Demand
“The facts on gas: Victoria’s current state of play. Victoria has always processed more gas for Australia’s East Coast gas market than it uses itself. But with resources in the Gippsland Basin starting to decline, decisive action is required to maintain supply. Get the facts on the actions the Victorian Government is taking to secure the East Coast’s gas supply in this three-part series.”
AEMO – March 2025:
Report: ‘Gas Statement of Opportunities – For Australia’s East Coast Gas Market’
“The 2025 GSOO forecasts risks of peak day shortfalls from 2028, and structural supply gaps3 emerging from 2029 in southern Australia. While the scale of gas consumption remains uncertain through the energy transition, particularly gas usage for electricity generation, all scenarios identify the need for new supply investments to maintain supply adequacy.”
Australians are waking up to the giant scam the gas industry has been operating: 🟠 Draining Australia of gas: exporting over 80% of Australia’s gas 🟠 Getting over half the gas they export royalty free 🟠 Never paying PRRT on the gas they export 🟠 Price gouging us for our own gas
— The Australia Institute (@australiainstitute.org.au) March 21, 2025 at 1:43 PM
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“Frightening.”
“Some of the pathways for climate warming are worrying (taking a range of datapoints from the IPCC, Berkley-Earth institute and the Global Carbon Project), if countries implement the commitments agreed at COP-Paris then global warming will be 2.4°C higher than the long-term average temperature by 2050, with current climate policies the increase is expected to be close to 3.5°C and with no climate policy adjustment it might be in the range of 4-5°C. Granted that a 1°C change in world average temperature can translate into a 4°C increase in some of the most climate precarious countries, this last scenario is frightening.”
~ Mike O’Sullivan, The Levelling
“The renewable energy revolution, driven by the rapid growth of solar and wind power, is transforming the global energy landscape. With significant cost reductions, job creation, environmental benefits, energy independence, technological innovations, and improved grid integration, solar and wind energy are truly changing the game.”
~ B.Sc. Jessica Taylor, Renewable Energy Revolution: How Solar and Wind are Changing the Game
#NoMoreGas #GasKills #CleanEnergy #Renewables #TheGreenTransition #ClimateCriminals