America’s transformation

Trump is back. But wait, the full American story hasn’t been written yet.

By 2028, the consequences of years under Trump’s administration – a relentless focus on fossil fuels, deregulation, and isolationism – have unfolded with a heavy toll. The country’s once solid foundations now creak under the strain of rising inequality, environmental degradation, and profound social unrest.

The United States has fallen behind global competitors in the renewable energy race. While nations like China, Germany, and India dominate the sector, reaping the economic and environmental benefits of innovation, American manufacturers languish, struggling to compete.

Subsidies for fossil fuels have drained public resources, leaving little for modernisation or infrastructure. The withdrawal from international climate agreements has cemented the nation’s reputation as a reluctant, even antagonistic, player on the global stage. Carbon tariffs imposed by trading partners choke American exports, especially in manufacturing and agriculture.

Domestically, deregulation has unleashed a wave of pollution. Smog shrouds major cities like Los Angeles and Houston. Water contamination incidents akin to Flint, Michigan, have become regular news. Rising greenhouse gas emissions drive extreme weather events – hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts – to unprecedented levels, and millions of Americans bear the cost.

In low-income communities, respiratory illnesses surge, the healthcare system buckles under the strain, and trust in government crumbles.

The economic disparity between rich and poor is laid bare. Wealthier enclaves fortify themselves with private solar grids and water reservoirs, while rural areas tied to coal and fracking sink deeper into despair. Younger generations, disillusioned by the lack of progress, leave for greener pastures in Canada or Europe, draining America’s talent pool and eroding hope for future industries.

This decline is not just economic. America’s image as a global innovator fades. Research budgets shrink, tech companies struggle to attract talent. The United States, once a leader in science and technology, becomes a bystander in the world’s green revolution. Amid this decay, the nation feels like it’s unraveling – a fragmented society teetering on the brink.

From protest to disruption
Across the nation, frustration gives way to mobilisation. Youth-led movements swell, fuelled by the urgency of climate inaction and economic injustice. Protesters occupy public spaces, block pipelines, and disrupt shareholder meetings. Police in riot gear stand as ominous sentinels, their presence a reminder of the gulf between citizens and their government.

In some places, protests boil over into violent confrontations. Tear gas clouds the air. The sound of rubber bullets echoes through city streets. A disillusioned younger generation, having lost faith in peaceful means, turns to more radical action. Activists sabotage fossil fuel infrastructure. Pipelines are disabled, corporate offices vandalised. The federal response – mass arrests, curfews, and censorship – only deepens resentment, fuelling the cycle of unrest.

The economy lurches towards collapse. Factories close, jobs vanish, and the coal renaissance promised by Trump fails to materialise. In rural communities reliant on dying industries, despair festers. Meanwhile, coastal cities endure rising seas, their residents battling floods and toxic air. Climate migration intensifies, with families fleeing drought-stricken regions in search of water and work, only to find overcrowded cities and strained resources. Resentment grows as communities clash over access to housing, energy, and food.

In rural America, far-right militias patrol towns, claiming to defend traditional values against the perceived threats of climate migrants and federal overreach. Meanwhile, eco-activist factions escalate their tactics, targeting fossil fuel facilities and their backers. Violent clashes between these groups become common, further fracturing the nation. Law enforcement, stretched thin, often cedes control to local militias, creating pockets of lawlessness. The Wild West is back.

Breaking point
By 2028, the very idea of the “United” States feels tenuous. States like California and New York, flourishing as green energy pioneers, openly defy federal policies. Their economies thrive on solar farms, offshore wind installations, and advanced energy systems. Meanwhile, states clinging to coal and oil face mounting unemployment and stagnation. Tensions rise as conservative states accuse the coastal elites of betrayal, fuelling talk of secession on both sides.

Congress becomes a battlefield. Traditional party lines blur as factions within both major parties fracture further. Debate turns vitriolic. Cooperation is a relic of the past. The judiciary, once a stabilising force, becomes another arena of conflict, with state governments defying federal rulings on climate and voting rights.

On the global stage, America’s absence is glaring. Nations like China and Germany dominate international climate summits and export markets for green technologies. The US, once a pioneer, now imports renewable energy equipment it could have produced itself. Allies grow weary, while rivals exploit the chaos.

Rise of Community Independents
Amid this turmoil, a quiet revolution begins. Inspired by Australia’s Community Independents movement, ordinary Americans – teachers, farmers, nurses, activists – step into the political void. Tired of corruption and partisan gridlock, they campaign not as party loyalists but as true representatives of their communities.

The movement starts small: coffee mornings, town hall discussions, neighbourhood meetings. Candidates run on platforms built from local concerns: renewable energy, economic fairness, healthcare, and education. Campaigns are crowdfunded, transparent, and powered by volunteers. Instead of social media blitzes, they rely on word of mouth, community bulletin boards, and local radio.

The 2028 midterm elections mark a turning point. Community Independents win dozens of seats in Congress, breaking the stranglehold of the two-party system. Their presence transforms the legislative process. Without party whips dictating votes, bills are debated on their merits. Independents act as bridge-builders, forging compromises where once there was only gridlock.

Honesty becomes the movement’s hallmark. Representatives publish detailed explanations of their votes, hold regular town halls, and actively engage with constituents. Public trust, long eroded, begins to return. Congress, once synonymous with dysfunction, evolves into a vibrant forum for collaboration and problem-solving.

Cultural renaissance
As politics shifts, so too does American culture. Disillusionment with social media grows. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram and X fade into irrelevance as people prioritise real-world connections. Families spend weekends planting trees, restoring wetlands, or hiking in protected national parks. Farmers’ markets and community events replace online shopping and digital distractions. Schools introduce outdoor learning and environmental education, fostering a generation deeply connected to nature.

Local economies thrive. Solar co-operatives and farm-to-table food systems flourish, while towns once reliant on fossil fuels reinvent themselves as hubs for wind and solar manufacturing. The sense of pride in community resilience is palpable.

By 2030, America’s transformation is undeniable. Emissions have plummeted, green energy jobs outpace those in fossil fuels, and the nation is a global leader in renewable technology. Internationally, the US is no longer a reluctant participant but a driving force in ambitious climate agreements.

The Community Independents do more than reshape politics, they redefine governance itself. They prove that democracy, even when battered, can adapt and thrive. America, once fractured, becomes a patchwork of communities united by shared values of integrity, sustainability, and care.

As Americans look back on the chaos of the late 2020s, they take pride in the movement that brought them back from the brink. The road ahead remains challenging, but the belief that change is possible and collective action matters lights the way forward.


FACTS ABOUT TRUMP AND THE CLIMATE

When Trump was elected for the first time, in 2016, it was the year after the Paris Agreement had been signed. His withdrawal from the Paris Agreement was not one of his first actions in office. It happened several months after he was inaugurated as president, and the withdrawal only came into effect in November 2020, just a short time before President Joe Biden was inaugurated as the new president. Biden immediately rejoined the United States to the Paris Agreement.

Although the actual withdrawal of the U.S. only lasted two months, it left a mark on international climate cooperation. It led to several states taking the initiative to form an alliance, the US Climate Alliance, which continues to work today towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.

They have been very active at the major annual climate conferences in the years that followed. In Bonn, Germany, in Katowice, Poland, and in Madrid, Spain: American senators and mayors queued up to share how much they were doing for the climate in their states and the impact that city-level climate actions can have.

In fact, there was a sense that the U.S. and its representatives were more active and cooperative than before, now led by states such as California, Arizona, and North Carolina.

The US Climate Alliance has recently announced that it continues to work towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The alliance is supported by 24 governors from various U.S. states, representing nearly 60 percent of the U.S. economy and 55 percent of its population.

Responses to Trump’s inauguration


→ Age of Transformation – 11 February 2025:
Trumpocracy 2.0, the Collapse of the American Dream and the Battle for the Next System
“Elon Musk is launching an authoritarian coup within the 2nd Trump presidency. Seen through planetary phase shift theory, this is a backslide into collapse. The battle lines are drawn. All humanity holds dear is at stake. We fight back by recognising our true power.” By Nafeez Ahmed

→ The Guardian – 25 january 2025:
Trump’s neofascism is here now. Here are 10 things you can do to resist
“America has deep problems, which is why we can’t give up. Protect the vulnerable, organize boycotts and keep fighting.” By Robert Reich


ChatGPT’s reponse:

Is America approaching a breaking point? Separating fear from fact

Recent warnings from prominent individuals have cast a shadow over the United States’ future. A billionaire hedge fund manager, speaking anonymously in Time magazine, suggested there is a 50/50 chance of the U.S. descending into civil conflict within the next year. This stark prediction—echoed by others like U.S. Army veteran and investigator Teddy Daniels—paints a grim picture of a nation on the brink.

But how did we reach a point where such predictions, credible or not, seem plausible? And what should we make of the growing climate of fear surrounding these claims? To answer these questions, we must examine the historical, social, and psychological factors shaping this volatile moment in American history.

A history of division

The United States is no stranger to periods of deep division. From the Civil War to the turmoil of the 1960s, America has weathered moments when its social fabric seemed irreparably torn. The Capitol insurrection on 6 January 2021 was a stark reminder of how close political polarisation can come to erupting into violence.

Historically, the conditions that precede large-scale social unrest include significant political polarisation, economic inequality, and a loss of trust in institutions. These conditions are disturbingly present in today’s America. A Pew Research study found that the ideological divide between Republicans and Democrats has widened to unprecedented levels, while Gallup polls reveal that trust in Congress, the media, and other key institutions has hit all-time lows.

Indicators of polarisation

The warning signs are not merely anecdotal. Experts and analysts point to measurable trends that highlight growing instability:

  • Economic inequality: The wealth gap in the U.S. has reached levels not seen since the Gilded Age. Such disparities often fuel resentment and populist movements, as evidenced by the rise of both far-left and far-right political factions.
  • Misinformation and media ecosystems: Social media platforms have created echo chambers that amplify divisive rhetoric and disinformation. A 2022 report from the Department of Homeland Security identified misinformation as a key driver of domestic extremism.
  • Militia and extremist activity: The FBI has reported a rise in domestic terrorism cases, many linked to far-right militias and lone actors emboldened by incendiary political rhetoric.

Lessons from history and abroad

Nations that have experienced civil unrest often share similar trajectories. Yugoslavia’s descent into conflict in the 1990s, for example, was fuelled by political polarisation, economic instability, and ethnic divisions. While the U.S. has safeguards—such as democratic institutions and a robust civil society—the warning signs should not be ignored.

The role of fear in shaping reality

At the heart of the current discourse is a pervasive climate of fear. Apocalyptic predictions, even when rooted in credible analysis, have a profound psychological impact. Fear can create a self-fulfilling prophecy: when people act on worst-case scenarios, they can inadvertently bring them to life.

Studies by the American Psychological Association reveal that fear-based messaging often leads to heightened anxiety and mistrust, which can escalate tensions rather than defuse them. This phenomenon is particularly potent in the U.S., where a fragmented media landscape often prioritises sensationalism over nuance.

Consider this: when individuals believe that conflict is inevitable, they may begin to prepare for it in ways that exacerbate divisions. Stockpiling weapons, withdrawing from civic engagement, or retreating into ideological silos are all behaviours that weaken the social cohesion necessary to prevent unrest.

Countering the climate of fear

So, how do we break free from this cycle? The first step is recognising that fear is a tool often wielded by those seeking to manipulate public opinion. Whether it’s political figures stoking division or media outlets profiting from sensational headlines, the motives behind fear-based messaging deserve scrutiny.

Next, fostering resilience and unity requires actionable steps:

  1. Invest in civic education: Empowering citizens with knowledge about democratic processes can counter misinformation and foster informed dialogue.
  2. Strengthen community ties: Local initiatives that bring people together—regardless of political affiliation—can rebuild trust and mutual understanding.
  3. Support fact-based journalism: Media consumers must demand and support outlets that prioritise facts over fearmongering.
  4. Engage in constructive dialogue: Efforts like Braver Angels, which facilitate conversations between politically opposed individuals, demonstrate that bridging divides is possible.

A call to action

While the warnings of potential conflict should not be dismissed, they also do not have to define America’s future. The nation has faced moments of division before and emerged stronger through resilience, reform, and a commitment to shared values.

The path forward requires rejecting the climate of fear and embracing the tools of dialogue, empathy, and action. It is not about choosing sides but about choosing unity over division. As history has shown, the power to shape the future lies not in the hands of billionaires or political elites but in the collective will of everyday citizens.

As the billionaire hedge fund manager said, “When in doubt, get out…” But perhaps the better path is to stay, engage, and work toward a future where such dire predictions remain hypothetical—not inevitable.


Socrates on wealth and moral corruption: A reflection on leadership and society

In The Republic, Plato’s Socrates discusses the different forms of government and their vulnerabilities. His observations on oligarchy—a system where the wealthy hold power—are strikingly relevant when considering the dynamics of contemporary political systems. Socrates suggests that in an oligarchic society, the prioritization of wealth inevitably undermines virtue and justice, creating fertile ground for moral decay and eventual societal collapse.

Socrates begins his critique by examining how an oligarchic state emerges. He describes it as a system where wealth becomes the central value, overtaking the pursuit of virtue:

“…the change from timocracy to oligarchy is brought about by this: that the treasury is emptied by rulers who are not true guardians, the people are burdened with taxes, and these measures are taken in order to enrich themselves and their families. And then, too, by paying what is due in accordance with wealth, rather than worth, such a city becomes an oligarchy.” (Book VIII, 550c)

In an oligarchy, wealth dictates governance, and those without it—often the majority—are excluded from power. Socrates observes that this system sets a dangerous precedent where material riches replace moral character as the measure of a person’s value:

“…what was once esteemed, courage and virtue, no longer holds sway, but money is honored above all. This, then, is the way oligarchies come to be: they make wealth the standard of worth, and by doing so they divide the city into two—one the city of the rich, the other of the poor, dwelling in the same place but always plotting against one another.” (Book VIII, 551a)

The result is not only a divided society but also one riddled with moral corruption. Rulers prioritize their financial interests, leaving the city’s broader welfare neglected. Justice is no longer a guiding principle; instead, it becomes a tool of the wealthy to protect their assets. Socrates warns that this system inevitably undermines both the individuals who lead and the society they govern, eroding trust and stability. He notes:

“…an oligarchic man is one who desires wealth so strongly that he ceases to care for virtue. He may still speak of justice, but his heart is tied to gain, and from such a man the city takes its character.” (Book VIII, 553a)

Ultimately, Socrates predicts that oligarchy cannot sustain itself. By exalting wealth over moral character, it invites disorder, inequality, and the eventual rise of demagogues who promise to restore fairness while further consolidating power. The lesson he offers is clear: when material riches become the ultimate goal, the moral foundations of society are at risk, and the justice needed to sustain a healthy polity begins to unravel.


One comment

  1. Hi Mik – great little piece there… and completely plausible. I hope a variation of it comes to pass! Not much else could be hoped for at this point. Cheers.. Goshen.

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