We are half way through 2025 – and soon half way through this decade which is widely recognised as the ‘make-or-break’ decade for global climate action. Meaning: we either act now, or we can forget about it, and things will get out of hand, beyond our control.
The signals from Earth’s climate system are louder than ever: it is breaking down. Temperature records are tumbling. Oceans are heating beyond expectations. Agriculture is struggling. Climate models have underestimated the severity of the changes now underway.
Despite this, fossil fuel extraction is accelerating in parts of the world – including Australia.
The increasingly catastrophic climate breakdown signals are somehow still not loud enough to pierce through the fog of political compromise, media fatigue, and financial inertia.
Which is the reason for this short article. This article is about reality. A factual account of where we stand on the climate front.
2023 and 2024: years of extremes
In January, the EU’s official climate monitoring service Copernicus confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record, and that global temperatures continued to break records into early 2024, with January 2024 being the warmest January ever recorded, 1.6°C warmer than pre-industrial times.
In 2023, millions were displaced by climate-related disasters, with global economic losses reaching hundreds of billions of dollars, according to various analyses. More than 46 million people were displaced by disasters in 2023 alone, with an estimated $643 billion in insurance losses.
Mainstream news have covered the unprecedented weather events, devastating floods, record-shattering marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic and around Australia, draughts, and megafires fuelled by prolonged heat. However, only rarely do the reports make any connection between these events and climate breakdown, and almost never do they remind their viewers and readers about what is the cause of this breakdown.
Australia: contradiction in motion
Australia continues to invest in renewable energy and clean tech – yet also in new coal and gas developments. In June 2025, the Northern Territory government officially abandoned its 2030 emissions target while aggressively promoting mining and fossil fuel projects.
Meanwhile, the nation’s emissions remain high. Australia’s fossil fuel subsidies continue to reach billions annually, while communities face growing costs of fire, flood, heatwaves and rising insurance premiums. Despite warnings from scientists, the pace of decarbonisation is still lagging behind what’s needed.
The oceans are heating – and warning us
The oceans have absorbed over 90 per cent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases – which mainly comes from our emissions from burning fossil fuels. In 2024, the Earth’s energy imbalance – the difference between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat – reached its highest recorded level. This is warming the oceans rapidly and driving sea level rise.
Between 2013 and 2023, global mean sea level rose by 4.3 mm per year – more than double the 20th-century average of 1.4 mm per year. Even these small increments significantly increase the reach and destructive power of storm surges, leading to more frequent ‘nuisance’ flooding, property damage, the loss of critical coastal habitats, and saltwater intrusion into vital freshwater supplies.
At the same time, ocean acidification is accelerating. Our CO2-emissions react with the seawater and form carbonic acid, which increases the oceans’ acitidy. This places immense stress on marine ecosystems and lead to a long-term decline in plankton populations – the very base of the food chain.
Researchers at Plymouth Marine Laboratory have warned that the ocean already surpassed a critical acidification threshold in 2020, much earlier than projected.
Agriculture on the edge
Even with adaptive technologies, five of the world’s six major staple crops are projected to experience significant declines due to rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns. This threatens food security, raises commodity prices, and fuels geopolitical instability. The effects are already visible in vulnerable regions across Africa, Asia, and parts of South America.
The finance sector’s fossil relapse
Despite years of pressure, many financial institutions are backtracking on their climate commitments. In 2024 alone, the world’s 65 largest banks invested $1.2 trillion in fossil fuel companies – including $580 billion in companies planning new fossil fuel projects.
Australia’s biggest super funds and banks – including Westpac, NAB, ANZ, and AustralianSuper – continue to fund fossil expansion while publicly touting climate concern. As Blair Palese from Climate Capital Forum put it: “Decades of promises and loudly announced commitments are dropped at any excuse – or a whiff of profit.”
Signs of progress
Despite setbacks, renewables are booming. Global solar capacity grew by 58 per cent in 2023, and wind power surged in China, the EU, and the US. Electric vehicle adoption continues to rise, and the price of batteries continues to fall.
Australia has some of the highest rooftop solar uptake in the world. Offshore wind projects are moving forward. Community batteries and microgrids are gaining ground. And innovation is accelerating – from rain-powered electricity nanogenerators in Singapore to large-scale algae-based carbon capture.
Legal action and civil courage
Globally, climate litigation is rising. Approximately 230 new climate cases were filed globally in 2023. There are now all-together around 3,000 climate-related legal cases across 60 countries, with most filed since 2015, according to The Climate Briefing.
In April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that the Swiss government had violated the rights of older women by failing to act on climate – a landmark decision that could shape legal precedents worldwide.
In Australia, youth-led organisations, First Nations groups, and local councils are holding governments and corporations accountable – in courtrooms, on the streets, and through the ballot box.
Science sharpens its warning
New research confirms that some climate models – especially those projecting slower warming – do not align with real-world satellite data. The Earth is absorbing more energy and releasing less, suggesting a higher climate sensitivity than previously thought. Phys.org explains: “Climate models with low sensitivity to greenhouse gases do not align with satellite measurements”.
We may be heading faster toward a 4°C world – far beyond the Paris Agreement’s limits – unless action ramps up dramatically and immediately.
Reflection – and responsibility
We know what needs to happen. The tools exist. The solutions are proven. What’s lacking is political will and media clarity. Many of today’s business and political leaders may not face the consequences of inaction – but the rest of society will.
This moment demands that we speak clearly. That we stop hiding behind targets decades away, and instead focus on the next five years. That we hold those in power accountable – and recognise our own roles, our agency, our communities, and the shared path we walk.
As climate risks escalate and push insurance costs ever higher, Australia is pouring fuel on the fire.
“Climate change is making disasters more frequent and more destructive. As a result, insurance companies have to pay out more claims, which means they charge higher prices.
In 2022, nearly one in 20 Australians had their home damaged or destroyed because of a weather-related disaster — the highest level on record.
Meanwhile, in every single year since 2013 there have been more insured losses in Australia than the total combined losses from 2000 to 2004.
This trend isn’t confined to Australia; insurance payouts from climate disasters are rising worldwide.
This should matter to Australian homeowners because disasters abroad can push up insurance prices here are home. This is because Australian insurance companies take out their own insurance from the global “reinsurance” market.”
→ The New Daily – 19 June 2025:
Australia has a home insurance crisis and climate change is going to make it worse
“Mortgages on inadequately insured homes aren’t just a risk for individual homeowners; they could destabilise the entire economy.”
→ ABC News – 15 April 2025:
One brick higher
“With flood waters rising, there are warnings of a “climate-induced credit crunch” as natural disasters threaten the viability of home insurance.”
→ ABC Listen – 26 June 2025:
99pc of Great Barrier Reef could be lost in next 20 years
“The government’s Climate Change Authority has issued a stark warning — “the window to avoid broadscale loss to the Great Barrier Reef’s ecosystems is closing”.”
“If the risk of a plane crashing was as high as the risk of the Amoc [ocean currents] collapsing, none of us would ever fly because they would not let the plane take off. And the idea that our little spaceship, our planet, is under the risk of essentially crashing and we’re still continuing business as usual is mindblowing. I think part of the problem is that people feel distant from the dangers and don’t realise the children we have in our homes today are threatened with a chaotic, disastrous, unliveable future.”
~ Dr Genevieve Guenther, American climate communications specialist
Spot on, as usual, from @doctorvive.bsky.social… "We need to correct a false narrative that the #climate threat is under control. These enormous risks are potentially catastrophic. They would undo the connections between human & ecological systems that form the basis of all of our civilisation"
— Dr. Aaron Thierry (@thierryaaron.bsky.social) June 25, 2025 at 9:19 PM
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→ Johnmenadue.com – 25 June 2025:
Faster than forecast, accelerated warming creates a climate time-bomb for the Albanese government
“The physical reality of accelerating climate heating and faster-than-forecast impacts have mugged climate policymaking, which now needs to be rebuilt with up-to-date scientific observations and understandings, and a risk-management approach that gives particular attention to the most-damaging, plausible high-end scenarios.”